The FilmNerds Blog

I’m feeling… what’s the word? Uneasy, I guess. The Academy Awards will be held this Sunday, and this is the first year since 2006 where I’m going into the award ceremony pretty uncertain about what will win most of the big prizes. (At least in 2005, I was dead certain that Best Picture would go to “Brokeback Mountain.” I was just wrong.)

What had looked like a slamdunk win for “The Social Network” for most of the precursor season — the critics went bananas for it, and it picked up every Best Picture award around for a while, making it look like a lock — was upended when the guilds went nuts for Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech,” flipping expectations on their heads and turning this into, if not a horserace, a win for the unpredicted horse. “The King’s Speech” won big at the Producers’ Guild, the Screen Actors Guild and, most tellingly, the Directors’ Guild, snatching what should have been a mortal lock to win from “The Social Network” and David Fincher and going into the Oscars broadcast the new frontrunner.

But I’m not sure. There has never been a year in which the critics so solidly backed one film and the guilds another. All the signposts you look for when guessing a Best Picture winner point to “The King’s Speech,” but there’s every reason to believe, given the solid support behind “The Social Network,” that it still stands a fighting chance.

Plus there are a handful of categories that are either so strong or so baffling that who knows will take it. Best Costume always goes its own way, but there’s no clear, frilly period piece that’ll win outright. Best Cinematography could go with the guild and laud Wally Pfister, or it could award the perennial Oscar bridesmaid Roger Deakins with his first win. Does Rick Baker win Best Makeup for the werewolves of “The Wolfman” or does one of the other, more subtle executions in “Barney’s Version” or “The Way Back” take the award? And who the hell ever knows who’ll win in the short film categories?

It’s in this shaky spirit I submit my Oscar predictions. I have a 50 percent chance that I will be wrong here. But precedents were made to be broken. Commentary below each category, when warranted:

Actor in a Leading Role

* Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”

* Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”

* Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”

* Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”

* James Franco in “127 Hours”

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

* Christian Bale in “The Fighter”

* John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”

* Jeremy Renner in “The Town”

* Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”

* Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

 

Actress in a Leading Role

* Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”

* Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”

* Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”

* Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”

* Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Some are predicting an Annette Bening upset, but the safe money is still with Portman, though I can only imagine that the older Academy voters probably hate and resent “Black Swan.”

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

* Amy Adams in “The Fighter”

* Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”

* Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”

* Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”

* Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Look for Steinfeld to possibly upset, but Leo seems like a safe bet.

 

Animated Feature Film

* “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois

* “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet

* “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

Art Direction

* “Alice in Wonderland” Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

* “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan

* “Inception” Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat

* “The King’s Speech” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr

* “True Grit” Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

OSCAR TRIVIA: No Tim Burton film nominated in this category has ever lost. Something to think about, but I think this’ll probably be the year it happens.

 

Cinematography

* “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique

* “Inception” Wally Pfister

* “The King’s Speech” Danny Cohen

* “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth

* “True Grit” Roger Deakins

Deakins will only lose to Wally Pfister, but if they didn’t like “Inception” enough to give it a Best Director nomination, how are they going to turn down Deakins’ work in “True Grit?”

 

Costume Design

* “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood

* “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi

* “The King’s Speech” Jenny Beavan

* “The Tempest” Sandy Powell

* “True Grit” Mary Zophres

Nobody even saw “The Tempest,” but it’s hard to bet against Julie Taymor and last year’s winner Sandy Powell. “The King’s Speech” could win here, but for what?

 

Directing

* “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky

* “The Fighter” David O. Russell

* “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper

* “The Social Network” David Fincher

* “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

It is far riskier, statistically, to predict a picture-director split than a Fincher-“Social Network” or Hooper-“King’s Speech” scenario, but that’s what I’m going with. They’ll feel like “The Social Network” was adequately rewarded with a Best Director win and feel warm and fuzzy with their Best Picture winner.

 

Documentary (Feature)

* “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz

* “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic

* “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs

* “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger

* “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

“Restrepo” could take this. All that talk about Banksy showing up or will he or what will he be disguised as will be irrelevant.

 

Documentary (Short Subject)

* “Killing in the Name” Jed Rothstein

* “Poster Girl” Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Block

* “Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon

* “Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger

* “The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

Who the hell knows?

 

Film Editing

* “Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum

* “The Fighter” Pamela Martin

* “The King’s Speech” Tariq Anwar

* “127 Hours” Jon Harris

* “The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

 

Foreign Language Film

* “Biutiful” Mexico

* “Dogtooth” Greece

* “In a Better World” Denmark

* “Incendies” Canada

* “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria

 

Makeup

* “Barney’s Version” Adrien Morot

* “The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng

* “The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

I mean, it wins by virtue of having a lot of makeup, right?

 

Music (Original Score)

* “How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell

* “Inception” Hans Zimmer

* “The King’s Speech” Alexandre Desplat

* “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman

* “The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

A heartbreaker, but watch it happen.

 

Music (Original Song)

* “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey

* “I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater

* “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong

* “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″ Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Who knows?

 

Best Picture

* “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers

* “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers

* “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers

* “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers

* “The King’s Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers

* “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers

* “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

* “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer

* “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers

* “Winter’s Bone” Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

A little voice keeps telling me, “Don’t give up on ‘The Social Network,’ ” but logic says otherwise.

 

Short Film (Animated)

* “Day & Night” Teddy Newton

* “The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang

* “Let’s Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe

* “The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann

* “Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois

 

Short Film (Live Action)

* “The Confession” Tanel Toom

* “The Crush” Michael Creagh

* “God of Love” Luke Matheny

* “Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt

* “Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

 

Sound Editing

* “Inception” Richard King

* “Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers

* “Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague

* “True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey

* “Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger

 

Sound Mixing

* “Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick

* “The King’s Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley

* “Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin

* “The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten

* “True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

 

Visual Effects

* “Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips

* “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi

* “Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell

* “Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb

* “Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

* “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy

* “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin

* “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich

* “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

* “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

* “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh

* “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson

* “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan

* “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg

* “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

 

Come visit the FilmNerds Blog on Sunday for a special live Twitter feed from all the FilmNerds contributors as we give our live thoughts on the ceremonies.

Better late than never, right? Well, in this case… maybe not…

I can only speak from my perspective as a “Sex and the City” non-fan – never really watched the show, saw the first movie only out of the same obligation for which I see every other movie (because I MUST) – so take this with whatever grain of salt you need to, but “Sex and the City 2,” the big-screen sequel to 2008’s first film and the long-running HBO show, is an atrocity beyond anything I could have expected.

Frankly, I was no fan of the first film, either, but in hindsight, with this sequel, it looks harmless, almost quaint in a way, a relic of a simpler time when groups of women may have acted like garish stereotypes but at least had generally compelling or relatable motivations. Viewers will find nothing resembling that here, in which writer/director Michael Patrick King – reprising these duties after the first film – views the first 45 minutes or so as a perfunctory exercise to get his characters to Abu Dhabi, where… nothing much happens there, either.

The main conflict of the film, I suppose, revolves around protagonist everywoman Carrie Preston, nee Bradshaw (Sarah Jessica Parker), whose marriage to whatever Chris Noth’s character is named is going well enough, though she’s sinking into an unfortunate rut, I guess, and tires of the routine of married life, preferring, I don’t know, her life of extravagance and nights out on the town to take-out and nights sitting on the couch. When an ill-conceived anniversary gift from the husband angers her (in a singularly infuriating scene – am I right, men who saw this movie? Am I right?), Carrie starts looking for time apart from her husband, and questioning the validity of her marriage because she feels the need to do so.

Meanwhile, Charlotte (Kristin Davis)’s kids are driving her crazy and a sexy new nanny (Alice Eve, who, the film is right on this at least, is sexy) is causing her some ill-defined anxiety in a subplot that never feels developed. Miranda (Cynthia Nixon) is struggling with a sexist new boss, though since this subplot only gets like one scene, it’s hard to consider this anything other than lazy shorthand to get her in some emotional place where she’ll agree to flightily take a trip with her girlfriends. And Samantha (Kim Cattrall – so good earlier this year in Roman Polanski’s “The Ghost Writer” but so, so bad here) is dealing with the advent of menopause.

All of these plots take a really, really long time to develop, as the majority of the first act seems to take place at the most extravagant gay wedding ever – and then, in spite of the film’s runtime, it all feels rushed. There are no stakes here because the emotions never feel developed or grounded in anything approaching reality – and say what you will about the first film, but that certainly wasn’t one of its problems, as anxiety surrounding marriage and infidelity were the prominent issues there and that’s all certainly relatable.

I suppose the problem is that King sought to make an “escapist” picture, in which his heroines escape their busy lives, travel to an exotic place and work out their problems in a nine-minute epilogue upon returning – but the film just comes off as trifling and insensitive, not only on cultural and religious grounds (I feel like enough has been written on that subject but OH MY GOD, who thought the climax of the film was a good idea) but economically speaking, too. I cannot think of a more ill-timed tentpole release than this, when the main characters’ chief concern upon trying to hurriedly flee from Abu Dhabi is whether or not they’ll be stuck in coach on the way back. I’m not trying to make some political statement with this review – the film is, frankly, not worth such thought – but making a film about four flighty women of privilege whose problems seem very much like problems people of lesser economic circumstance would kill for seems like a terrible idea in this climate. Judging by the box office, the people are voting with their pocketbooks – and rejecting this absurd, classist nonsense as they should. No amount of corny puns or fabulous clothes are worth sitting through this. So please don’t.

½ (out of four)

Back from a longer than intended absence (in which time one summer movie was released with minimal fanfare — “Robin Hood” — and if you’ll permit me a one-phrase review, I would say that it wasn’t as bad as you’ve heard but suffers from a crippling lack of purpose or novelty), as work responsibilities piled up over a short amount of time.

“MACGRUBER”

Starring Will Forte, Kristen Wiig, Ryan Phillippe, Powers Boothe, Maya Rudolph and Val Kilmer

Directed by Jorma Taccone

Probably as much of a followup film to the underrated “Hot Rod” as we’re ever going to get from The Lonely Island, director Jorma Taccone — one-third of the comedy group responsible for the album “Incredibad” and those digital shorts on Saturday Night Live — packs the very silly “MacGruber” full of absurd gags and ’80s action-movie humor. While it’s not as frequently hilarious as “Hot Rod,” “MacGruber” gets the job done more often than not, with some over-the-top silliness courtesy of scenarists Taccone, star Will Forte and SNL writer John Solomon.

As you probably know, “MacGruber” springs from those 30-second sketches on SNL starring Forte, Kristen Wiig and usually whatever guest star is hosting the show that week, in which the MacGyver roman a clef MacGruber (Forte) is faced with the task of defusing a bomb, and, inevitably, fails to do so. So you would be forgiven for questioning how such a skit translates to a 90-odd minute film, but let’s just say that it’s not all explosives humor and leave it at that — “MacGruber” has the ’80s action movie in its crosshairs (so to speak) and skewers it with increasing absurdity.

MacGruber (no first name is ever given) is a former Special Forces guy called back into action by his former C.O., General Faith (Powers Boothe), after the heinous Dieter von Cunth (Val Kilmer, in “Top Secret” mode) allegedly seizes a nuclear warhead. Cunth is the same person who killed MacGruber’s wife (Maya Rudolph) — during their wedding, on the altar — so this time, it’s personal.

With a crack team of badasses — and then, following an amazing sight gag, with the young, by-the-book Lt. Dixon Piper (Ryan Phillippe) and Vicki St. Elmo (Wiig) — MacGruber sets out to “pound some Cunth.” And that’s all you need to know, and hopefully that line from the movie will give you a general idea of the sort of humor contained herein, because the plot is as loose as I described above, and really just exists to hang all sorts of scatalogical, sexual and violent jokes upon.

Your mileage may vary, but the absurd non sequiturs and sudden bursts of violence had me giggling like a maniac in the theater. Will Forte is a comic maelstrom, chewing every bit of scenery in his path, and his costars are wise enough to back off and let him do his thing (particularly the comparatively restrained Wiig, who doesn’t play quite to her manic highs here, but is funny in a more restrained way).

I’m not saying “MacGruber” is a perfect comedy, but considering the lows we’ve been through with Saturday Night Live-based films, you can pretty much rest assured this is among the best of them.

*** (out of four)

Tomorrow: A late review of “Shrek Forever After,” followed soon after by reviews of “Sex and the City 2″ and “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time,” now that I actually have a bit of free time from my other job.

Hey folks,

I’m back in the realm of FilmNerds, for the first time in a long time. Our mutual friend Matt has kindly asked me to offer my weekly thoughts on the summer movies, since I pretty much see all of them anyway — and I’m more than happy to oblige. Naturally, this first summer weekend was the week of my graduation from college, and Mother’s Day — but somewhere in that time, I got to see the summer’s first blockbuster twice.

So without further ado — let’s kick off the summer…

“IRON MAN 2″

Starring Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Mickey Rourke, Don Cheadle, Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson and Samuel L. Jackson

Directed by Jon Favreau

“Iron Man 2″ shares basically all the strengths and weaknesses of its predecessor, the surprising 2008 hit “Iron Man.” It feels so much like a continuation of the first film that I’m both unsurprised how much I liked it and very surprised at how critics originally with the Jon Favreau-directed first film turned so violently on the second. I would never dare say some of their concerns aren’t valid, but I suppose the novelty of the first film caused them to overlook those flaws, and the hype surrounding this one opened it up to more scrutiny — even with how damn fun this movie is.

“Iron Man 2″ starts mere seconds after the first film ends, as a Russian scientist dies while Tony Stark (Downey) is giving the press conference from the end of “Iron Man.” As his son, Ivan Vanko (Rourke), holds his dead father and watches Stark, he swears revenge — to clear the name of his unjustly punished father from crimes done by Tony’s own father, Howard (played in film strips by John Slattery of “Mad Men”).

Skip forward six months. Stark, as he tells a senator (Garry Shandling) hell-bent on taking the Iron Man suit for the U.S. government, has “privatized world peace.” (It’s a shame that the audience doesn’t get to see any of this — as it stands, Stark as Iron Man doesn’t actually… do very much at all in the film.) Stark is reopening the Stark Expo to showcase scientific advances and, more importantly, to stoke his own ego. But he’s holding a secret — the palladium core that keeps him alive and powers the Iron Man suit is slowly poisoning him. Frightened by his imminent death, Stark begins acting rashly — and Vanko capitalizes with a super-powered suit of his own, culminating in an action sequence at a racetrack at Monaco that ends the first act and draws the attention of Justin Hammer (Rockwell), a Stark competitor with a grudge who likes the idea of putting Tony Stark in his place and sees Vanko as the mechanical genius who can do it.

On top of all that, Pepper Potts (Paltrow) returns as Stark’s beleagured sidekick turned C.E.O. of Stark Industries, Jim Rhodes (now played by Cheadle, replacing Terrence Howard) sees his allegiances further torn between his friend and the military, and Nick Fury (Jackson) and SHIELD return to monitor Stark for some secret project called the Avengers Initiative.

The new additions to “Iron Man 2″ are welcome and generally effective, though the standout, as I expected going in, is Sam Rockwell as the weasely Stark competitor Justin Hammer. Hammer’s hilarious bravado and insecurity, along with some choice moments and great lines, make it pretty easy for Rockwell to steal every scene he’s in. Rourke, though sadly underused (spending most of the film in Hammer’s secret compound and not really doing much) is menacing and makes the most of his screentime; it’s a villain in need of a more strongly structured screenplay. I didn’t mind Scarlett Johansson, though it’s a shame that her storyline is ultimately a distraction — though she unmistakably awakens the libidoes of countless teenage boys with her catsuit and ass-kicking, and Jon Favreau certainly lingers on the shaplier parts of her body. (Not a complaint, but these might be the shots held longest in the entire film, and that’s the sort of thing you notice on a second viewing.)

“Iron Man 2″ is flawed. You may find its climax rushed (but, unlike the first film, at least it has one). You may find yourself thinking about missed opportunities here and there, or wondering exactly what function SHIELD and its agents have in the film, other than serving as an extended trailer for the upcoming “The Avengers” film. But once again, the sheer charm of the cast and the humor and high energy of the thing make it a lot more enjoyable than it has any right being, given an almost total disregard for structure and scripting. Think about it like this:  the “Iron Man” franchise is basically Marvel’s very own “Ocean’s” franchise, though I do see “Iron Man 2″ being more widely accepted than “Ocean’s Twelve.”

I’ll generously give it a *** 1/2 out of four here, and yes, it holds up. It’s so much fun.

NEXT WEEK: A more timely review of “Robin Hood.” I’ll also be doing a weekly retrospective of the past decade’s summer movie seasons (2000-2009), running through each summer’s moneymakers, artistic successes and failures. So keep an eye out for that — the first entry should be up within the week. Thanks for reading FilmNerds.